According to law of averages, Jimmie Johnson should win the Cup title

BY DAVID POOLE McClatchy Newspapers The law of averages says Jimmie Johnson will be a blowout winner in the 2008 Chase for the Sprint Cup.. OK, well maybe “law” is a strong word. And, to borrow a phrase from that great Western philosopher Bugs Bunny, it’s not clear if Kyle Busch ever studied law. Having no idea how the numbers would turn out, we decided to apply what history we could to this year’s 10-race championship Chase. The idea was to use averages from the previous four years that there has been a Chase. We figured the average finishes for each of this year’s 12 championship contenders at the tracks they’ll be racing on. Then, we’ve figured the average finishes of the drivers in the Chase at those tracks since 2004. Then we give the driver with the best average finish at, say, New Hampshire, the points for the best Chase driver’s average finish in each Chase race there. We go right down the list doing that for all the tracks and all the contenders and figure up who’s where after each race. Keep in mind, of course, that all of Kyle Busch’s numbers were with Hendrick Motorsports, and he’s hardly been “average” at anything this season with Joe Gibbs Racing. In other words, if you want to take Jimmie Johnson and give us Kyle Busch and 750 points, just let us know where to sign up: CHASE RACE 1 New Hampshire Motor Speedway This flat track has a history of being both very good and very costly to Chase contenders. Since the Chase started in 2004, championship players have finished 1-2-3 in every fall race at Loudon. At the same time, until last year at least one Chase driver had finished 35th or worse in the playoff opener. Based on average finishes at NHMS since 2004, Denny Hamlin gets the win, with Matt Kenseth second and Kevin Harvick third. Kyle Busch, meanwhile, finishes 27th. Hamlin takes over the points lead by 13 over Jimmie Johnson and 18 over Carl Edwards. Busch drops from first to eighth. CHASE RACE 2 Dover International Speedway Greg Biffle gets his first victory of the season. Carl Edwards is third and Jimmie Johnson is fourth, with Kyle Busch rebounding to finish seventh. Two weeks into the Chase, Edwards and Johnson are tied for first with Busch just 39 points back in third. Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth are all also within 50 points of first place. CHASE RACE 3 Kansas Speedway At a track that’s traditionally been tough on Chase drivers, one of the competitors not in the playoff wins at Kansas Speedway for the third time in five years. Biffle remains hot, getting second with Clint Bowyer third and Johnson fifth. Hamlin, however,

JEFF SINER/MCCLATCHY NEWSPAPERS Averaging his finishes at the 10 Chase for the Sprint Cup tracks over the past four years, Jimmie Johnson is forecasted to win another title in 2008. finishes 30th and Busch winds up 34th on the day. That leaves Johnson 44 points ahead of Biffle atop the standings, with Edwards third, just four points behind Biffle. CHASE RACE 4 Talladega Superspeedway Harvick wins the race with Tony Stewart third and Hamlin fifth on a day when Talladega takes its usual toll on some of the championship contenders. Only five of the Chase drivers make the top 10 and three finish outside the top 30 — Bowyer, Biffle and Busch. Johnson, who finishes 12th, sticks in the top spot with a 75-point edge over Hendrick Motorsports teammate Jeff Gordon, who is still seeking his first win of the season. Edwards is tied with Kenseth for third, 86 points out of the lead. Harvick CHASE RACE 5 Lowe’s Motor Speedway Harvick can’t build on his Talladega momentum, finishing 33rd at Charlotte. Edwards picks up the victory and moves into second in the standings, but Johnson finishes second to minimize Edwards’ gains. Jeff Burton is third with Dale Earnhardt Jr. fourth in the race. Two weeks into the Chase, Edwards and Johnson are tied for first with Busch just 39 points back in third. Jeff Gordon, Jeff Burton and Matt Kenseth are all also within 50 points of first place. CHASE RACE 6 Martinsville Speedway Johnson is threatening to make his bid for a third straight championship a runaway after winning at Martinsville, edging teammate Gordon. Stewart is fourth and Hamlin is fifth, but Edwards stumbles to a 26th-place finish and loses big ground. Kenseth is now up to second after finishing seventh, but he’s 157 points back. Stewart is three behind Kenseth, with Gordon fourth, Hamlin fifth and Edwards back to sixth 174 points behind the leader but only 17 points behind second place. CHASE RACE 7 Atlanta Motor Speedway It’s hard to catch a guy who keeps on winning. Johnson gets another victory and moves even further out front. Stewart’s second-place finish keeps him at least in the same ZIP code as the two-time defending champion, but he’s still 175 points back. Hamlin moves to third in the standings, with Edwards fourth and Gordon fifth. The big loser at Atlanta is Kenseth, who finishes 26th in the race and falls to seventh in the standings, 262 points back. CHASE RACE 8 Texas Motor Speedway With Johnson well out in front, the focus turns to who’ll be second in the points. (Well, OK, the focus actually is on the NFL and college football by now with Johnson way out in front, but you get the point.) Kenseth wins at Texas, with Johnson finishing second. Hamlin is third and Stewart finishes fourth. Stewart now has a 16-point lead over Hamlin and Kenseth is 62 behind Stewart. Johnson? Oh, he’s in first by 185 points now. CHASE RACE 9 Phoenix International Raceway Johnson becomes the first driver to make the final race of the Chase officially a moot point, winning for the third time in four races to clinch the title. He’ll go to Homestead with a 215- point lead and his third title already in hand. Stewart finishes fifth and now has a 33-point lead on Hamlin for second. Gordon finishes second at Phoenix and now trails Stewart by 103. CHASE RACE 10 Homestead-Miami Speedway Johnson cruises in with an 11th-place finish and wins the title by 234 points over Stewart, who holds off Hamlin by just 11 points for second. Busch finishes 38th to close out a disappoint Chase, finishing 765 points behind the winner.

1. Kyle Busch (car No. 18): Your regular-season champion. He can’t count on his 40-point cushion being enough. Last week: 1.

2. Jimmie Johnson (car No. 48): Really more like 1-A after two straight wins. Clear Chase co-favorites with the No. 18 team. Last week: 3.

3. Carl Edwards (car No. 99): The Chase is heavy with intermediate tracks, and that’s right in this team’s wheelhouse. Last week: 2.

4. Kevin Harvick (car No. 29): Piling up top-10 finishes in past two months. Could be the sleeper team in the Chase. Last week: 4.

5. Tony Stewart (car No. 20): A championship run by a team breaking up like this one is would be truly unexpected. Last week: 5.

6. Denny Hamlin (car No. 11): Third-place finishes in the past three races. Don’t go to sleep on these guys in the Chase. Last week: 8.

7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (car No. 88): If this team can get back the consistency it had early on, it could do some Chase business. Last week: 9.

8. Greg Biffle (car No. 16): Haven’t seen anything resembling championship-level results from this team this year. Last week: 6.

9. Jeff Burton (car No. 31): New Hampshire is a good track for this team, so at least a good Chase start is possible. Last week: 10.

10. Jeff Gordon (car No. 24): If this team could switch on a title-worthy performance it would have flipped it by now. Last week: 11.

For the rest of the top-40 rankings, go online and visit www.thatsracin.com

It will take the usual tools to win this year’s NASCAR Sprint Cup points championship: a fast car, skilled driving, confidence-building experience and luck.

But it helps to have something more - something that doesn’t show up on dynamometers or in wind-tunnel data. It’s something that the top teams in the sport currently possess.

What is it?

Good vibrations between drivers and their crew chiefs. Not friendliness or even trust - though those things figure in - but less-evident intangibles. You know, vibes. Following Jimmie Johnson’s dominating victory at Auto Club Speedway in California, his crew chief, Chad Knaus, talked about how his relationship with Johnson could

“I feel like it’s going to sound kind of contradictory saying this, but I think the driver-crew chief relationship is one of the things that sets the (No. 48) car apart right now,” Knaus said.

As the 10-race, 12-driver Chase for the Sprint Cup Championship begins, Johnson has three victories and is third in the points standings. Only two drivers can stake claims to being hotter: points leader Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards, who is second in points.

Busch also leads the Sprint Cup series with eight victories and Edwards is second with six.

They also may lead the series in good vibes between driver and crew chief.

Knaus notices such things. “Kyle and Steve (Addington) hit it off well right out of the box, and their communication level was high, and Kyle explained to Steve what the car was doing,” Knaus said.

Before getting together, Busch had four victories in 114 starts at Hendrick Motorsports.

Addington had no victories in three years as crew chief for J.J. Yeley at Joe Gibbs Racing.

After Busch and Addington got their fourth victory of the season at the spring race in Dover, the driver and his owner were asked why the relationship between Busch and Addington was working so well.

“It just works,” Busch said. “It just works,” Joe Gibbs said. Also obviously working is the driver-crew chief combo on the No. 99 Roush Fenway Racing team.

On that team, Edwards and his crew chief, Bob Osborne, have been accumulating points and victories since they paired up in 2005. On and off, that is. After finishing third in the Chase in '05, Osborne and Edwards were separated in the spring of ’06

by owner Jack Roush. Roush figured that his No. 26 car — that of Jamie McMurray — was struggling and could use Osborne’s touch.

That situation just didn’t work — for either Edwards or McMurray. Neither won a race.

Roush reunited Edwards and Osborne. Together again, they won three times in ’07 and six times this season.

Edwards and Osborne don’t always get along, but they do share the vibes that lead to success.

During the final laps at Pocono a couple of weeks ago, they argued about pit strategy. They continued to argue face to face during a rain-forced red flag break.

When next they met, it was in Victory Lane.